Tagged: ZiPS

The Eye Test: A Lesson In Myopic Forecasting

With this time of year comes a vast assortment of projections and prognostications for the upcoming baseball season, for both teams and players alike.

There’s no shortage of opinions or methods of forecasting what team or player is going to have an unforgettable season. ZiPS. Steamer. PECOTA. All great methods and algorithms to determine how the year ahead will play out. However, I’m going to go rogue, and get all old school on you and give you a player season projection… ONLY USING MY EYES.

Yes, I will be using the EYE TEST to determine how well former Baltimore Oriole, current Seattle Mariner, and eternal fan favourite Robert Andino will fare in his initial foray into AL West baseball.

OK, truth be told, I won’t be completely supplanting actual data and calculations to determine Andino’s success in favour of my ophthalmic inputs. I will use the ol’ peepers, along with a couple of stats and pictures of Andino from picture days of the last couple of years, to see what kind of year he will have as an Mariner.

Let’s get started – first, Andino as an Oriole, courtesy of DC Sports Bog’s Sarah Kogod, and Buzzfeed:

😀 –> :/ –> >:[

By now, a fairly iconic picture of Andino. How about some stats (from our good buddies at Fangraphs)?

Happy 2010 Andino: 112 wRC+, .345 wOBA in 16 games

Mildly bemused 2011 Andino: 85 wRC+, .302 wOBA in 139 games

OK, who farted? faced 2012 Andino: 61 wRC+, .265 wOBA in 127 games

So what we can surmise from this is that a happy Andino is a productive Andino; on to the 2013 Mariners Photo Day Andino picture:

AndinoSEA

Oh boy.

By my piercing, scout-like, Derek Jeter-esque sultry, albeit vacant eyes, Andino is going to have a rough year in Seattle.

2013’s picture is awfully reminiscent of 2012’s, but with more antagonistic seething, and less confused inattentiveness. 2013’s picture is the portrait of a man who knows he’s backing up Dustin Ackley and Brendan Ryan, and he doesn’t have time for that.

As determined by my eye test, look for Andino to have a wRC+ of about 60, and a wOBA of around .260 in 2013. A combination of playing home games in a pitcher’s park, and the damp Pacific Northwest weather will depress Andino and his production ever so slightly, as compared to his 2012 Baltimore season. Yet, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Andino, as he will mean mug his way to a career best 8 home runs.

While most tend to find picture day a waste of a day, and a distraction from spring training, I find it to be a crucial piece of any baseball scout or prognosticator’s toolbox.

A picture is worth a thousand words, the adage goes. For Andino, a picture is also worth several points on your wOBA.

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The Ghost of Xaviers Past

I am an unabashed Xavier Nady fan – have been ever since I saw him manhandle the pitching staffs of many a college baseball team of northern California that came through to play his Cal Bears back in the day. Some of you might also remember my Nady love from this previous post.

Regardless of how your memory is jogged of my man crush on the Salinas Slugger, if there is Nady News, I am all over it, like Nady on a mid-thigh high, mid to upper 80’s fastball, with little to no movement from a right handed pitcher, preferably in a hitter’s count.

Well, my our good friend and newly minted Kansas City Royal is back in the news, once again to haunt the dreams of Washington Nationals fans.

If it wasn’t torture enough for Nats fans to bid him adieu after several lackluster, yet sporadically productive weeks as a National, only to see him end the year a World Series winner…

Nady_WS

 

…the ZiPS Projections for 2013 have come out, and Nady once again returns to troll the hearts and minds of Nats fans:

 

zips_nady

Nadytude. It never dies.