Tagged: Sean Burnett

How Do I Natstown?

Not much to pass along here, other than a link to an article I wrote for Citizens of Natstown related to the possible resigning of Sean Burnett and a MYSTERY PLAYER.

MYSTERY PLAYER isn’t as cool as the weird gravity vortex thingie known as the MYSTERY SPOT out in Santa Cruz, CA, but he does prevent a vortex of suck from engulfing the Nats bullpen, so he’s got that going for him. That, and a cool nickname I gave him:

So if you like intrigue, LOOGYs, and the Nationals, head on over to Citizens of Natstown, yes?

Clippard’s Closing: A Nice Plan A

Bros before closer roles, roomie.

Home runs in two back to back save opportunities aside, I feel that the rush to bring Storen in to close might be an ill advised move, and that the witch hunt for Clippard to be banished to the 8th is unwarranted.

While numbers tend to lie on match.com profiles, in baseball, they rarely ever do, so let’s have a look at what Tyler has done in the closers role, as compared both to Storen’s fantastic 2011 tour of duty, and of other closers in 2012.

Season W L SV SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2012 2 3 15 11.1 3.7 0.65 0.235 5.6 2.83 2.77 3.74 0.9
2011 3 0 0 10.6 2.65 1.12 0.197 9.5 1.83 3.17 3.2 1.2

So far in 2012, compared to 2011, Tyler has done a great job of exceeding expectations, as seen with his FIP/xFIP numbers. His WAR, as compared to 2011, is also indicative of a solid showing this year. He is also striking out more batters this year as compared to last, while also having half as many fly balls go out as home runs, as compared to last year – even in spite of the shaky outings of late. We do see an uptick in walks, as well as BABIP; however, his 0.235 BABIP of 2012 is still lower than his career mark of 0.241.

Let’s look a little closer at Clippard’s numbers, in his role as the Nats ninth inning stopper:

Split G H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
in Saves 15 3.8 1.25 1.9 12.6 0.122 0.173 0.286 0.459 0.148
in Sv Situ 27 5.2 1 2.7 12 0.160 0.225 0.298 0.523 0.214

Compare these numbers to his overall 2012 season, both a closer and setup man, as well as his 2011 All Star season. Clippard is more than doing the job closing out wins for the NL East leading Nationals. In fact, he is doing just as well, if not better than last year’s career year. How outstanding is the season Clippard is having as a closer, as compared to his closing peers? Let’s have a look…

For this exercise, I used baseball-reference.com’s Play Index query tool, to find comparable closers, using Tyler’s stats as the bar to surpass. The stats I used to compare Tyler, as full time closer, against other closers were…

ERA+ > 164
SO/9 > 12
Batting Average Against </= 0.160
Saves >/= 15

The verdict?

Player Tm ERA+ ERA WAR SV SV% BA W L H/9 SO/9 HR/9 OPS
Huston Street SDP 343 1.07 1.2 15 100 0.119 2 0 3.6 12.1 0 0.372
Craig Kimbrel ATL 325 1.25 1.8 27 96 0.123 0 1 3.8 15.5 0.25 0.345
Kenley Jansen LAD 186 2.06 1.5 16 81 0.140 4 3 4.4 13.4 0.82 0.495
Tyler Clippard WSN 164 2.39 0.9 15 88 0.160 0 1 5.2 12 1 0.523

Well, it’s pretty damning. Damning for Clippard to be an elite closer thus far in the embryonic stages of his life as a closer. To put up numbers that can only be bested by 3 other closers this year, and bests the seasons of many longstanding luminaries of the ninth inning world is a damn good season, back to back gopherball games be damned.

So, now the million dollar question. Yes, Washington has a great fill in closer in Clippard, but does he stay there once Storen returns to full capacity? While the final answer is up to the braintrust of Mike Rizzo, and Davey Johnson, let me throw some Storen numbers at you to compare to Clip’s, and let you play armchair manager.

Here are Drew’s numbers from his fantastic 2011 season:

Season W L SV SO/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2011 6 3 43 8.84 2.39 0.96 0.25 11.10% 2.75 3.32 3.14 0.9
Split G H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip    
in Saves 43 5.4 0.2 2.4 8.6 0.171 0.228 0.241 0.469 0.226
in Sv Situ 51 6.7 1.2 2.4 8.6 0.203 0.260 0.359 0.619 0.235

Elite closer status, elite numbers. However, Storen’s 2011 trails Clip’s 2012 closer output in H/9, SO/9, BAA, BABIP, OPS, and OBP. He does have the upper hand when it comes to home runs, doing a much better job of minimizing the long ball, compared to Clip thus far. He also had a better save percentage: 90% (with 5 blown saves), compared to Tyler’s 88% (two blown saves).

Any other MLB team would love to have Storen or Clippard as their closer. It is an embarrassment of riches to have Storen, the likes of Clippard, as well as Sean Burnett, and Ryan Mattheus – both in their own rights having dominant seasons – in the bullpen, keeping Nats starters in the W column.

However, as we can see, Tyler is more than deserving of maintaining his role as the closer, even as Storen returns to the mound. While creating a conundrum in terms of status, and number of innings to divvy up amongst some very deserving pitchers, it is a refreshing change from Nationals teams of the past, and bodes well for a successful run not only towards the NL East division crown, but also a lengthy run in the playoffs.

In the movie Glengarry Glen Ross, we learned that we should ABC: Always Be Closing.
For the Nats, should it Always Be Clippard?